Biden Vs Trump 2024 Polls 538. Changed, because most of the surveys — conducted after president joe biden’s exit from the 2024 race, after the democratic convention, and after independent. In comparison, 538's forecast model suggest harris has a 57 percent chance of winning, with trump given a 42 percent chance.
An updating calculation of the president’s approval rating, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size,. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.